tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Rapid City via Chicago: arrives on time 78%

  1. 00:50 PHX → 06:25 ORD
    AA 1148 · American · 3h 35m · 79% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 2h 20m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 08:45 ORD → 10:24 RAP
    UA 2847 · United · 2h 39m · 89% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection89%The first flight arrived more than 50 minutes late on 11% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 20m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (89%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (89%).
Total trip8h 34mPHX 00:50 to RAP 10:24, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.