tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Louisville via Chicago: arrives on time 81%

  1. 00:50 PHX → 06:25 ORD
    AA 1148 · American · 3h 35m · 79% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 35m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:00 ORD → 10:35 SDF
    AA 4704 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 36m · 93% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection89%The first flight arrived more than 50 minutes late on 11% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 35m layover.
Arrives on time81%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (89%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (93%).
Total trip6h 46mPHX 00:50 to SDF 10:35, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.