tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 43%

  1. 18:58 DCA → 21:29 DFW
    AA 1158 · American · 3h 26m · 61% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:30 DFW → 23:47 XNA
    AA 3693 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 17m · 77% on time, 2.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 46 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (2.6% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip5h 49mDCA 18:58 to XNA 23:47, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.