tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Los Angeles → Raleigh/Durham via New York: arrives on time 57%

  1. 06:00 LAX → 14:37 JFK
    AA 118 · American · 5h 37m · 85% on time, 3.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 53m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:30 JFK → 20:27 RDU
    AA 4804 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 57m · 66% on time, 9.1% cancelled

Total trip 11h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 188 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 53m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (3.0% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (9.1% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip11h 27mLAX 06:00 to RDU 20:27, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.