tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → New Orleans via Miami: arrives on time 20%

  1. 08:49 PHX → 16:12 MIA
    AA 1184 · American · 4h 23m · 56% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:07 MIA → 18:17 MSY
    AA 2201 · American · 2h 10m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection40%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 60% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (40%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip7h 28mPHX 08:49 to MSY 18:17, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.