tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Ontario → Santa Rosa via Phoenix: arrives on time 36%

  1. 06:11 ONT → 07:30 PHX
    AA 1194 · American · 1h 19m · 92% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 2h 47m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:17 PHX → 12:30 STS
    AA 3514 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 13m · 38% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 122 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 47m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (38%).
Total trip6h 19mONT 06:11 to STS 12:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.