tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Pittsburgh via New York: arrives on time 43%

  1. 16:03 MIA → 19:15 JFK
    AA 1202 · American · 3h 12m · 55% on time, 6.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:30 JFK → 22:23 PIT
    AA 4611 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 53m · 75% on time, 6.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (6.9% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (6.6% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 20mMIA 16:03 to PIT 22:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.