tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Washington via Charlotte: arrives on time 43%

  1. 14:03 PHX → 21:18 CLT
    AA 1211 · American · 4h 15m · 64% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:28 CLT → 23:53 DCA
    AA 1269 · American · 1h 26m · 64% on time, 4.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (4.4% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip6h 51mPHX 14:03 to DCA 23:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.