tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Phoenix via Charlotte: arrives on time 80%

  1. 06:33 IAD → 08:00 CLT
    AA 1216 · American · 1h 27m · 83% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 40m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:40 CLT → 11:04 PHX
    AA 1986 · American · 4h 23m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 55 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 40m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip7h 30mIAD 06:33 to PHX 11:04, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.