Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Phoenix → Raleigh/Durham via New York: arrives on time 35%
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12:53 PHX → 21:00 JFKAA 1224 · American · 5h 07m · 53% on time, 1.4% cancelled
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1h 00m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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22:00 JFK → 00:12 RDU +1 dayAA 4573 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 09m · 72% on time, 8.3% cancelled
Total trip 8h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (8.3% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip8h 16mPHX 12:53 to RDU 00:12, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.