tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Chicago via Los Angeles: arrives on time 44%

  1. 20:43 AUS → 21:56 LAX
    AA 1291 · American · 3h 13m · 72% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:45 LAX → 05:00 ORD +1 day
    AA 1009 · American · 4h 24m · 76% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip8h 26mAUS 20:43 to ORD 05:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.