tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Sacramento via Charlotte: arrives on time 26%

  1. 15:30 JFK → 17:44 CLT
    AA 1294 · American · 2h 14m · 59% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:31 CLT → 21:03 SMF
    AA 2508 · American · 5h 32m · 68% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection40%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 60% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (40%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip8h 33mJFK 15:30 to SMF 21:03, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.