tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Las Vegas via Charlotte: arrives on time 26%

  1. 15:30 JFK → 17:44 CLT
    AA 1294 · American · 2h 14m · 59% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:30 CLT → 20:17 LAS
    AA 596 · American · 4h 47m · 69% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 7h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection39%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 61% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (39%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip7h 47mJFK 15:30 to LAS 20:17, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.