tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Tampa via Charlotte: arrives on time 37%

  1. 17:00 LGA → 19:18 CLT
    AA 1320 · American · 2h 18m · 62% on time, 7.0% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:16 CLT → 21:59 TPA
    AA 2022 · American · 1h 43m · 68% on time, 2.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (7.0% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (2.3% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip4h 59mLGA 17:00 to TPA 21:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.