tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Norfolk via Charlotte: arrives on time 44%

  1. 17:00 LGA → 19:18 CLT
    AA 1320 · American · 2h 18m · 62% on time, 7.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:24 CLT → 21:45 ORF
    AA 5622 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 21m · 68% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (7.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip4h 45mLGA 17:00 to ORF 21:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.