tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Chattanooga via Charlotte: arrives on time 52%

  1. 17:00 LGA → 19:18 CLT
    AA 1320 · American · 2h 18m · 62% on time, 7.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:24 CLT → 21:52 CHA
    AA 5787 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 28m · 80% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (7.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip4h 52mLGA 17:00 to CHA 21:52, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.