tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Houston via Phoenix: arrives on time 24%

  1. 15:52 SFO → 18:04 PHX
    AA 1321 · American · 2h 12m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:52 PHX → 23:29 IAH
    AA 2357 · American · 2h 40m · 67% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection37%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 63% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (37%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip5h 40mSFO 15:52 to IAH 23:29, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.