tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Minneapolis via Phoenix: arrives on time 21%

  1. 15:52 SFO → 18:04 PHX
    AA 1321 · American · 2h 12m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:50 PHX → 23:58 MSP
    AA 3142 · American · 3h 08m · 66% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection32%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 68% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (32%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip6h 06mSFO 15:52 to MSP 23:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.