tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Anchorage → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 63%

  1. 21:57 ANC → 07:19 ORD
    AA 1354 · American · 6h 22m · 69% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:22 ORD → 10:06 MSP +1 day
    AA 4162 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 46m · 91% on time, 1.5% cancelled

Total trip 9h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 3 h ahead of Anchorage). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time63%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (91%).
Total trip9h 11mANC 21:57 to MSP 10:06, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.