tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Sioux Falls via Chicago: arrives on time 47%

  1. 12:00 ATL → 13:20 ORD
    AA 1363 · American · 2h 20m · 75% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:18 ORD → 16:12 FSD
    AA 4990 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 54m · 67% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sioux Falls is 1 h behind Atlanta). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip5h 12mATL 12:00 to FSD 16:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.