tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Chicago via Atlanta: arrives on time 30%

  1. 16:00 MIA → 18:04 ATL
    AA 1367 · American · 2h 04m · 44% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 39m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:43 ATL → 21:11 ORD
    AA 1372 · American · 2h 33m · 43% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 6h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 54 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 39m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (43%).
Total trip6h 16mMIA 16:00 to ORD 21:11, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.