tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Washington via Atlanta: arrives on time 13%

  1. 09:06 PHX → 15:56 ATL
    AA 1373 · American · 3h 49m · 59% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:58 ATL → 18:59 DCA
    AA 5084 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 01m · 25% on time, 17.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time13%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (17.1% are) and within 15 minutes (25%).
Total trip6h 53mPHX 09:06 to DCA 18:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.