tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Sacramento via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 13%

  1. 20:01 ATL → 21:32 DFW
    AA 1379 · American · 2h 31m · 39% on time, 10.1% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:30 DFW → 23:59 SMF
    AA 509 · American · 3h 29m · 44% on time, 6.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Atlanta). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection35%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 65% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time13%First flight not cancelled (10.1% are) × connection made (35%) × second flight not cancelled (6.1% are) and within 15 minutes (44%).
Total trip6h 58mATL 20:01 to SMF 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.