Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Chicago → Seattle via Phoenix: arrives on time 47%
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14:25 ORD → 16:09 PHXAA 1384 · American · 3h 44m · 34% on time, 0.0% cancelled
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1h 46m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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17:55 PHX → 21:05 SEAAA 4307 · American, flown by Envoy · 3h 10m · 84% on time, 0.0% cancelled
Total trip 8h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 61 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 46m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip8h 40mORD 14:25 to SEA 21:05, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.