tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → St Louis via Chicago: arrives on time 36%

  1. 18:26 AUS → 21:39 ORD
    AA 1398 · American · 3h 13m · 60% on time, 5.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 21m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:00 ORD → 00:16 STL +1 day
    AA 1004 · American · 1h 16m · 58% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 36 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 21m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (5.3% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip5h 50mAUS 18:26 to STL 00:16, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.