tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 25%

  1. 18:26 AUS → 21:39 ORD
    AA 1398 · American · 3h 13m · 60% on time, 5.3% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:34 ORD → 00:14 PHX +1 day
    AA 2786 · American · 3h 39m · 55% on time, 11.1% cancelled

Total trip 7h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (5.3% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (11.1% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip7h 47mAUS 18:26 to PHX 00:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.