tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Kansas City via Chicago: arrives on time 35%

  1. 18:26 AUS → 21:39 ORD
    AA 1398 · American · 3h 13m · 60% on time, 5.3% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:35 ORD → 00:19 MCI +1 day
    AA 3695 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 44m · 69% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (5.3% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip5h 53mAUS 18:26 to MCI 00:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.