tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Tampa via Philadelphia: arrives on time 44%

  1. 12:10 AUS → 16:49 PHL
    AA 1407 · American · 3h 38m · 68% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:58 PHL → 20:40 TPA
    AA 2322 · American · 2h 42m · 62% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip7h 30mAUS 12:10 to TPA 20:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.