tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Atlanta via Philadelphia: arrives on time 35%

  1. 12:10 AUS → 16:49 PHL
    AA 1407 · American · 3h 38m · 68% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:35 PHL → 19:55 ATL
    AA 3041 · American · 2h 20m · 69% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip6h 45mAUS 12:10 to ATL 19:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.