tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Dulles via Charlotte: arrives on time 28%

  1. 17:41 AUS → 21:39 CLT
    AA 1408 · American · 2h 56m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:45 CLT → 00:10 IAD +1 day
    AA 1242 · American · 1h 25m · 41% on time, 3.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 28 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (3.6% are) and within 15 minutes (41%).
Total trip5h 29mAUS 17:41 to IAD 00:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.