tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Philadelphia via Charlotte: arrives on time 41%

  1. 17:41 AUS → 21:39 CLT
    AA 1408 · American · 2h 56m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:29 CLT → 00:17 PHL +1 day
    AA 2189 · American · 1h 48m · 74% on time, 3.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (3.2% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip5h 36mAUS 17:41 to PHL 00:17, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.