tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Sacramento via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 48%

  1. 09:43 STL → 11:38 DFW
    AA 1410 · American · 1h 54m · 82% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:24 DFW → 14:02 SMF
    AA 2634 · American · 3h 38m · 73% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind St Louis). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip6h 19mSTL 09:43 to SMF 14:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.