tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Chicago via Austin: arrives on time 33%

  1. 15:17 MIA → 17:19 AUS
    AA 1411 · American · 3h 05m · 53% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Austin (AUS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:26 AUS → 21:39 ORD
    AA 1398 · American · 3h 13m · 60% on time, 5.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 22m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (5.3% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip7h 22mMIA 15:17 to ORD 21:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.