tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Madison via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 28%

  1. 17:11 DCA → 19:41 DFW
    AA 1414 · American · 3h 30m · 65% on time, 5.3% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:36 DFW → 22:53 MSN
    AA 876 · American · 2h 17m · 48% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (5.3% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (48%).
Total trip6h 42mDCA 17:11 to MSN 22:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.