tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Pensacola via Miami: arrives on time 57%

  1. 10:45 AUS → 14:39 MIA
    AA 1417 · American · 2h 54m · 77% on time, 3.2% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:31 MIA → 16:34 PNS
    AA 3749 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 57m · 81% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (3.2% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip5h 43mAUS 10:45 to PNS 16:34, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.