tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Miami via New York: arrives on time 24%

  1. 16:33 ORD → 20:04 JFK
    AA 1421 · American · 2h 34m · 57% on time, 11.7% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:00 JFK → 00:21 MIA +1 day
    AA 2026 · American · 3h 21m · 59% on time, 11.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (11.7% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (11.1% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip6h 48mORD 16:33 to MIA 00:21, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.