tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Washington via Philadelphia: arrives on time 29%

  1. 13:52 AUS → 18:32 PHL
    AA 1423 · American · 3h 40m · 79% on time, 5.0% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:25 PHL → 20:41 DCA
    AA 5019 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 16m · 54% on time, 16.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (5.0% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (16.3% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip5h 49mAUS 13:52 to DCA 20:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.