tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → Seattle via Chicago: arrives on time 15%

  1. 18:38 DFW → 21:22 ORD
    AA 1424 · American · 2h 44m · 39% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:15 ORD → 00:52 SEA +1 day
    AA 1459 · American · 4h 37m · 48% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 8h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection34%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 66% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (34%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (48%).
Total trip8h 14mDFW 18:38 to SEA 00:52, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.