tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → Madison via Chicago: arrives on time 44%

  1. 18:38 DFW → 21:22 ORD
    AA 1424 · American · 2h 44m · 39% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 38m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:00 ORD → 00:10 MSN +1 day
    AA 3728 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 10m · 74% on time, 10.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 53 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 38m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (10.0% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip5h 32mDFW 18:38 to MSN 00:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.