tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → Sioux Falls via Chicago: arrives on time 27%

  1. 18:38 DFW → 21:22 ORD
    AA 1424 · American · 2h 44m · 39% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:30 ORD → 00:18 FSD +1 day
    AA 4942 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 48m · 61% on time, 6.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (6.5% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip5h 40mDFW 18:38 to FSD 00:18, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.