tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → Des Moines via Chicago: arrives on time 33%

  1. 18:38 DFW → 21:22 ORD
    AA 1424 · American · 2h 44m · 39% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:31 ORD → 00:18 DSM +1 day
    AA 4442 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 30m · 71% on time, 6.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection51%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 49% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (51%) × second flight not cancelled (6.8% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip5h 23mDFW 18:38 to DSM 00:18, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.