tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Phoenix via Los Angeles: arrives on time 47%

  1. 17:10 ORD → 19:33 LAX
    AA 1437 · American · 4h 23m · 55% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:41 LAX → 22:09 PHX
    AA 2293 · American · 1h 28m · 74% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 35 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip6h 59mORD 17:10 to PHX 22:09, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.