tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Santa Barbara via Los Angeles: arrives on time 82%

  1. 17:10 ORD → 19:33 LAX
    AA 1437 · American · 4h 23m · 55% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 3h 11m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 22:44 LAX → 23:44 SBA
    UA 4796 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 00m · 88% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Barbara is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 101 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 11m layover.
Arrives on time82%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip8h 34mORD 17:10 to SBA 23:44, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.