tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Charleston via Philadelphia: arrives on time 35%

  1. 16:26 AUS → 21:04 PHL
    AA 1441 · American · 3h 38m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:55 PHL → 23:56 CHS
    AA 5068 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 01m · 59% on time, 12.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (12.1% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip6h 30mAUS 16:26 to CHS 23:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.