tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Detroit via Philadelphia: arrives on time 40%

  1. 18:39 RDU → 20:11 PHL
    AA 1441 · American · 1h 30m · 55% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:15 PHL → 23:09 DTW
    AA 5418 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 54m · 74% on time, 5.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 0 of the last 56 days, too few to list among the best connections.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (5.0% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip4h 30mRDU 18:39 to DTW 23:09, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.