tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Indianapolis via New York: arrives on time 47%

  1. 13:14 ORD → 16:34 LGA
    AA 1478 · American · 2h 20m · 63% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 LGA → 20:12 IND
    AA 4793 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 32m · 75% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip5h 58mORD 13:14 to IND 20:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.