tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Newark via Miami: arrives on time 25%

  1. 17:27 BNA → 20:55 MIA
    AA 1501 · American · 2h 28m · 36% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:00 MIA → 00:59 EWR +1 day
    AA 2008 · American · 2h 59m · 62% on time, 2.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection41%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 59% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (41%) × second flight not cancelled (2.6% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip6h 32mBNA 17:27 to EWR 00:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.