tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Chicago via Miami: arrives on time 21%

  1. 17:27 BNA → 20:55 MIA
    AA 1501 · American · 2h 28m · 36% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 MIA → 00:26 ORD +1 day
    AA 2323 · American · 3h 36m · 63% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 6h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection34%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 66% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (34%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip6h 59mBNA 17:27 to ORD 00:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.