tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Chicago via Nashville: arrives on time 18%

  1. 15:19 MIA → 16:47 BNA
    AA 1501 · American · 2h 26m · 38% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:41 BNA → 19:55 ORD
    AA 1570 · American · 2h 14m · 51% on time, 1.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection35%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 65% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (35%) × second flight not cancelled (1.3% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip5h 36mMIA 15:19 to ORD 19:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.