tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Hebron via Philadelphia: arrives on time 37%

  1. 15:38 BNA → 18:50 PHL
    AA 1506 · American · 2h 10m · 68% on time, 4.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:40 PHL → 21:53 CVG
    AA 5583 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 13m · 68% on time, 4.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (4.8% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (4.6% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip5h 15mBNA 15:38 to CVG 21:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.